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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above forecasts (-0.6M) in August 14: Actual (4.405M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above forecasts (-0.6M) in August 14: Actual (4.405M)
Bank of England: Rate hold baseline with conflict risks – Societe Generale
Sam Cartwright at Societe Generale argues recent easing in United Kingdom (UK) services inflation and labour market loosening support the Bank of England’s wait-and-see stance. The baseline view is Bank Rate stays at 3.75% through 2026 to restrain underlying inflation.
United States Dollar Index falls as US Treasury doubles long-dated debt buybacks
The US Dollar Index (DXY) comes under fresh selling pressure on Wednesday as longer-term US Treasury yields fall sharply following the Treasury Department’s decision to expand its buyback operations.
South Korean Won: Growth-driven recovery offers policy lesson – ING
Chris Turner at ING explains that Korea’s earlier massive portfolio outflows and a weaker Korean Won (KRW) pushed USD/KRW to 1560 in June, despite a large current account surplus.
Breaking: FOMC officials acknowledged inflation remained elevated
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) published the Minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. "The information available at the time of the meeting indicated that inflation remained elevated.
Chinese Yuan: Policy support eyed as growth slows – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that China’s July data showed weaker Industrial Production and Retail Sales, underscoring fading momentum at the start of Q3.
Euro rises to June highs as falling US Treasury yields weigh on US Dollar
EUR/USD climbs sharply on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since June as the US Dollar (USD) comes under fresh selling pressure following the US Treasury’s announcement that it will increase buybacks of longer-dated government debt.
Australian Dollar: Shallow uptrend risk into next year – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes AUD/USD is currently on the back foot, with the Australian Dollar the weakest G10 currency on a one-day view. Despite market doubts, Rabobank still expects one more Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike this year.
Indonesian Rupiah: Stability-focused BI stance – UOB
UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja notes that Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI Rate at 5.75% in August, prioritizing Rupiah and macro-financial stability over growth.
US Treasury doubles some long-dated debt buybacks to support liquidity
The United States (US) Department of the Treasury (US Treasury) announced on Wednesday that it will double the size of some of its buyback operations aimed at supporting liquidity in the longer-dated Treasury securities market.
United Kingdom: Constrained backdrop and BoE risks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright argues that a new UK Prime Minister has not altered the constrained fiscal backdrop, limiting ambitions on housebuilding, social care, investment and defence.
China: Policy support and structural shifts – HSBC
HSBC strategists review July data and the latest China Politburo guidance. Retail sales and Fixed Asset Investment softened, while Industrial Production and exports were supported by AI-related and green technology demand.
Euro: Domestic demand resilience supports EUR – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s warning that Europe’s post-war growth model is eroding as global trade fragments and cheap energy fades.