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Indian Rupee: Benign inflation reinforces RBI pause – DBS
DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao analyzes India’s July inflation data and its implications for the Reserve Bank of India. She notes that benign core inflation and limited spillovers from external shocks support a continued RBI policy pause.
New Zealand Dollar: Anchored expectations back RBNZ hikes – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes NZD/USD briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Q3 inflation expectations survey showed mixed but well-anchored readings near the 2% midpoint.
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in June: Actual (0.5%)
Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in June: Actual (0.5%)
Euro gains against British Pound despite stronger UK growth data
EUR/GBP edges higher on Thursday as the Euro (EUR) draws support from hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations, overshadowing stronger-than-expected UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that would otherwise have supported the British Pound (GBP).
Federal Reserve: Gradual easing path – UOB
Alvin Liew of UOB outlines expectations for the Federal Funds Rate following the July US CPI release. Market pricing for a September hike has fallen, and UOB’s base case is an extended pause through 2026.
European Central Bank: Independence risks rise with debt – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Marco Wagner assesses how political pressure threatens the European Central Bank’s (ECB) independence using a Central Bank Pressure Index based on AI analysis of politicians’ statements.
Riksbank: Rate hike risks rise – Nomura
Nomura strategists expects the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% in August, with no change through 2026.
British Pound: Solid UK data, limited BoE impact – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes GBP/USD trading directionless near 1.3500 as United Kingdom (UK) Q2 and June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data show encouraging activity. Growth was driven by investment and consumption, with government spending a drag.
British Pound recovers early losses against US Dollar, US PPI data eyed
The British Pound (GBP) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens at around 1.3495 during the European trading session on Thursday.
Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank softens hawkish stance – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Norges Bank analysis notes the policy rate was left unchanged at 4.25% in August, with a less hawkish tone than in June.
Economists agree: ECB to hike interest rates by 25 bps to 2.5% in September - Reuters
According to a Reuters poll, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike its deposit rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% in September, said 57 of 69 economists.
Australian Dollar caught between hawkish RBA, Iran-related inflation risks
AUD/USD trades around 0.7055 on Thursday at the time of writing, little changed on the day.
Japanese Yen: Bearish bias against US Dollar within higher range – UOB
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/JPY closed little changed at 159.41 after briefly dipping to 158.58 and rebounding to 159.54. Intraday, the pair is expected to trade between 158.70 and 159.70.