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Federal Reserve seen holding rates next week amid Oil shock ‒ Reuters
A Reuters poll revealed that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year as it battles stubbornly high inflation that has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for at least 5 years.
WTI Crude Oil advances on US-Iran supply disruption fears as traders await API report
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $84.40 at the time of writing on Tuesday, up 2.6% on the day, as concerns over global Oil supplies continue to support prices despite hopes for a diplomatic de-escalation in the Middle East.
US Dollar: Complacency risk supports Dollar – ING
ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the Dollar is drawing broad-based support as markets slowly react to escalating tensions in the Gulf.
Oil: Geopolitical premium persists as Gulf conflict escalates – BNY
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the U.S.–Iran confrontation and Houthi threats in the Red Sea are sustaining a geopolitical premium in Brent and WTI. Brent has risen toward $88 per barrel, with risks that Strait of Hormuz disruptions further tighten Oil supply.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attempts Descending Triangle breakout near $4,070
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 1.5% to near $4,067 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal outperforms as the rally in oil prices has stalled, with investors turning confident that negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards peace have resumed.
162.70: Japanese Yen nears 40-year lows against the US Dollar
The Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps drifting lower on Tuesday, unfazed by the mild US Dollar’s weakness.
Japanese Yen: Energy shock and Japan policy risks – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes USD/JPY is holding just below year-to-date highs as a negative energy price shock weighs on the Japanese Yen. Rising Brent prices linked to US–Iran tensions and Houthi threats to shipping highlight global supply risks.
Oil: Escalation risks and Dollar support – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight rising geopolitical risks around Middle East supply routes, warning that a deeper conflict could push Oil back above USD100/bbl and revive volatility.
WTI Price Forecast: Struggles below $82.00 and one-month high; bullish potential intact
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound from the $79.50-$79.45 area and trades with a negative bias through the first half of the European session on Tuesday.
US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains sticky to 20-day EMA
The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower against its major currency peers in Tuesday’s European session, as the appeal of safe-haven assets has diminished due to hopes of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.
Oil: Red Sea route risks and price outlook – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have shifted more Middle East Oil flows toward the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, increasing vulnerability to regional conflict.
Brent: Geopolitics weigh on prices – ING
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent retreated below $90/bbl as hopes for US–Iran de-escalation offset rising supply risks. They highlight reports of a proposed 10‑day ceasefire and ongoing large divisions between the US and Iran.
US Dollar: Fed inflation framework questions – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur discusses how persistent high Oil and energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve’s stance, with markets only modestly pricing in further tightening.